Jay Daverth's Quotes

in Cognitive Biases

Belief bias – an effect where someone's evaluation of the logical strength of an argument is biased by the believability of the conclusion.

in Cognitive Biases

Clustering illusion – the tendency to see patterns where actually none exist.

in Cognitive Biases

Capability bias – the tendency to believe that the closer average performance is to a target, the tighter the distribution of the data set.

in Cognitive Biases

Conjunction fallacy – the tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.

in Cognitive Biases

Disposition effect – the tendency to sell assets that have increased in value but hold assets that have decreased in value.

in Cognitive Biases

Gambler's fallacy – the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. Results from an erroneous conceptualization of the Law of large numbers. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads."

in Cognitive Biases

Hawthorne effect – the tendency to perform or perceive differently when one knows they are being observed.

in Cognitive Biases

Hindsight bias – sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the tendency to see past events as being predictable.

in Cognitive Biases

Illusory correlation – beliefs that inaccurately suppose a relationship between a certain type of action and an effect.

in Cognitive Biases

Neglect of prior base rates effect – the tendency to neglect known odds when reevaluating odds in light of weak evidence.