Jay Daverth's Quotes

in Cognitive Biases

Primacy effect – the tendency to weigh initial events more than subsequent events.

in Cognitive Biases

Recency effect – the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events (see also peak-end rule).

in Cognitive Biases

Disregard of regression toward the mean – the tendency to expect extreme performance to continue.

in Cognitive Biases

Stereotyping – expecting a member of a group to have certain characteristics without having actual information about that individual.

in Cognitive Biases

Subadditivity effect – the tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts.

in Cognitive Biases

Subjective validation – perception that something is true if a subject's belief demands it to be true. Also assigns perceived connections between coincidences.

in Cognitive Biases

Observer-expectancy effect – when a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it (see also subject-expectancy effect).

in Cognitive Biases

Optimism bias – the tendency to be over-optimistic about the outcome of planned actions.

in Cognitive Biases

Ostrich effect – ignoring an obvious (negative) situation.

in Cognitive Biases

Overconfidence effect – excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time.