Gambler's fallacy – the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. Results from an erroneous conceptualization of the Law of large numbers. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads."
Books by Jay
Conflict and Conciliation: Faith and Politics in an Age of Global Dissonance
Despite the peaceful foundations of global monotheistic religions, the broad diversity of interpretations can lead to a sharp paradox regarding the use of force. Inevitably, we must ask ourselves: How can those who ascribe to peaceful beliefs suspend their own moral foundation to beat the drums of war? ... read more
The latest in a string of disasters from the Franken-Food folks:
Millions of hectares of farmland in northern China have been struck by infestations of bugs following the widespread adoption of Bt cotton, an engineered variety made by the US biotech giant, Monsanto.
Outbreaks of mirid bugs, which can devastate around 200 varieties of fruit, vegetable and corn crops, have risen dramatically in the past decade, as cotton farmers have shifted from traditional cotton crops to GM varieties, scientists said.
I published an article on GMO farming as part of a sustainable development module in grad school. While I was (still am) largely cynical of our ability to predict the long-term consequences of such scientific forays, I had no moral qualms about research into genetic modification. Agrarian societies have long engaged in such manipulation through selective breeding and modern biotechnology is ostensibly an attempt to employ sophisticated gene splicing techniques to achieve the same ends. Since the manipulation occurs at the genetic level, the randomness of the selective breeding process is bypassed and therefore the results can be more predictable within fewer generational attempts.
Particularly with the promise of super-foods such as 'golden rice', I was initially enthusiastic about biotechnology's potential to address global food security. After completing my research, however, I found little to support the movement in its current form, and substantial evidence that it should be halted immediately.
At minimum, the research and development expenses associated with bringing a crop to market are far too immense for practically anyone outside global agribusiness. Virtually all of the research and production of plant GMO’s is carried out by seven major “life science” companies, many of whom are actually pharmaceutical giants. Golden Rice projects may be good PR, but they ignore the fact that people aren't hungry because their rice is no nutritious enough, they're hungry because all they eat is rice. In the meantime, these corporations mount an assault on the farmers themselves with the inclusion of suicide genes which ensure that crops become infertile after a single season (requiring the purchase of more seeds), that they work with only a single strain of pesticide/herbicide (happily sold by the same company) and whose controversy artificially constricts the available market to countries friendly to GM foods (notably, the U.S.).
In an ecological sense, GM crops not only shuttle much of the developing world into mono-cropping (think Ireland's potato famine), but also have the same effect as hospital superbugs (e.g. antibiotic-resistant strains of MRSA spawned by the overuse of germicides). Those organisms able to adapt to the chemical assault form super-pests and super-weeds which are not only nearly impossible to control, but have the bonus effect of assaulting neighboring farms who chose not to become slaves to global agribusiness.
Hey, I'm all about human ingenuity. But does anyone still believe that multi-national corporations have our best interests in mind?
As my last post may hint, I've been on a bit of a crusade these last months towards a more minimalist lifestyle. Now keep in mind that for an ADD/over-achiever like myself, minimalism is relative. Nevertheless, I have been trying to practice the art of radical exclusion to the best of my ability. On of the hardest things for me is trimming down my daily reading list.
The Art of Great Things is one of the blogs that has managed to survive my feed scalpel on multiple occasions, very much for the occasional nugget of wisdom they offer in posts such as this one. Actually, it is a repost from Jeffrey Tang of a talk given by Derek Sivers on the collision between the American leadership drive and the importance of learning to follow - something I could certainly stand to improve upon:
This is what jumped out at me upon reading what Derek had to say:
“It was the first follower that transformed a lone nut into a leader. There is no movement without the first follower. We’re told we all need to be leaders, but that would be really ineffective. The best way to make a movement, if you really care, is to courageously follow and show others how to follow.
When you find a lone nut doing something great, have the guts to be the first person to stand up and join in.”
Uber-geeks rejoice! No longer are you bound by dictated fashion trends or plain-vanilla Binary timepieces. TokyoFlash has delivered a new way to display time that is easy enough for a child yet esoteric enough to confuse anyone outside the "know". Seriously, if the RIAA sat down to design a watch, this would be the result - a timepiece we can enjoy secure in the knowledge that no passing stranger will be able to 'steal' the time that we worked so hard to pay for!
The newest installment of Tom the Dancing Bug reminds me of a recent discussion I was having about supply and demand in the (illegal) immigration debate. At its base, this is an issue of supply (what the U.S. has to offer) and demand (who stands to gain from the risk) and I reject the notion that demand side efforts, such as increased border control and deportation controls, can ever do much to address the problem. Such 'solutions', much like the war on drugs, play well with the electorate because they have the appearance of being proactive while diverting attention away from the ruling class and keeping people from questioning the obvious - that if there were no jobs for illegal immigrants, then there would be no illegal immigrants.
It would be cheaper and more effective to crack down on the supply-side (employers) but that would be targeting our economic drivers (if I'm feeling gracious) or white people (for when I'm feeling a bit more cynical). Employers in the U.S.are already numbered, tagged and monitored - they are finite in number and easy to regulate. The same cannot be said about immigrants who the U.S. will never, ever be able to stop until the costs of illegality outweigh the benefits.
Yet one fact being ignored in the American media’s sensationalist
narrative about the failed bombing is that the man who was responsible
for police finding the bomb was Muslim. The UK’s Times Online reports
that Aliou Niasse, a Senagalese Muslim immigrant who works as a
photograph vendor on Times Square, was
the first to bring the smoking car to the police’s attention.
Yes, but don'tcha know that this was actually all a plot to get us to let our guards down and forget that immigrants are evil, Muslims are evil, and damned are we when the twain shall meet!?!
I'm surprised how many people I would ordinarily consider sane are finding creative ways to rationalize the rancor driving Klu Klux Klarizona's new immigration policy (yeah, you know who you are). With a straight face, some have even chastised me as though I should be accustomed to carrying paperwork as a guest in a foreign country (btw - no paperwork needed) and then have the audacity to act as though I am hyperbolic in suggesting that the law dismantles the fourth amendment in deference to criminalizing skin color. Millions of lawful residents - and yes, born and bred American citizens - are being targeted to assuage the xenophobia stoked by the election of a black president. But hey, who cares – it’s not about you, right? I thought Robert Greenwald highlighted the hypocrisy best:
Image: Ku Klux Klan, a Creative Commons Attribution No-Derivative-Works (2.0) image from arete13's photostream
Exactly. Let's be honest here - if we were having a problem with illegal Canadian workers, this law would never have passed because nobody wants to profile white people. So after decades of being either ignored or used as a political football by mainstream politicians, it's great to see Latinos starting to get organized, but screw boycotting Arizona. Does anyone honestly believe that the state would miss any of the kind of people that would bother?
No, Arizona's government has crossed the line and doesn’t need a spanking – it needs to be broken. Here's a good start. If you have brown skin or even if you can just speak with a plausible accent - grab some summer vacation time, hop on a plane, train, or automobile and head down to Arizona. Spend the day at the park, in the mall, or driving up and down main street. Make yourself seen. Get pulled over. If you want to lop this atrocity off at the knees then you gotta take it to the only thing these people understand. Money. Make this law too expensive to enforce and it goes away. Yeah ... it's that easy. Oh, and note for the Democratic party: You want a winner for 2010? The hop on board here before the GOP wises up. You may have done next to nothing to woo Latinos over the past decades ever but now's your chance. The only reason not to is if you're worried about pissing off the racist right and guess what - they ain't votin' for y’all anyways.
If you've been a long-time reader of this blog, you know by now that I am huge sci-fi fan. What you almost certainly don't know, is that it takes only mere seconds of a barbershop quartet performance to send me into fits - yes, fits - of pure glee. Never did I imagine that, one day, the modern commnications marvel that is the internet would come along to deliver both in a single, double-shot package of mirth. Enjoy!
CRACKERJACK JUNCTION sings THE EWOK CELEBRATION SONG
I've had the pleasure of meeting several times with a well-known masculinities scholar named Michael Kimmell who once explained to me why academics make poor talk-show guests. Detailing his appearance on an episode of the Oprah Winfrey show - I believe the topic was white supremacy - he was flanked on both sides by frothing extremists. His role was ostensibly to be the impartial 'decider' of right and wrong. That's not the way it works.
Anyone who has spent time thinking deeply about an issue must conclude that dichotomies - good/evil, right/wrong - simply don't exist. They are a journalistic shortcut that keep us divided by preventing an earnest challenge to the underlying mandates of a particular ruling class. To paraphrase Cary Elwes, anyone who claims otherwise is selling something.
The early days of the Cold War was a large-scale example of this dynamic. It is no more logical to claim that the spread of communism was a threat to the people of the United States than it would have been to worry about Poland attacking us after being occupied by the Germans. Before the U.S. decided to escalate a nuclear arms-race, there was no credible motive to fear the spread of an economic ideology. While forceful Soviet occupations may have indeed raised worthwhile issues of human rights and just warfare, the conflict was far more about determining the economic framework of an increasingly globalized world. With two main players, a dichotomy was erected between capitalism and communism.
Capitalism prevailed which lead some, like the newly influential Francis Fukuyama, to declare the 'End of History' whereby liberal capitalism had become so entrenched as to withstand any foreseeable challenge. Indeed, Bill Clinton pursued this framework with almost messianic zeal, combining neoliberal globalism (a global economy free from regulatory impediments) alongside a vigorous pursuit of American exceptionalism. With his predecessor combining this mission with militarized enforcement, it is indeed easier today to imagine the end of the world than it is to imagine the end of capitalism.
The problem with such dichotomous thinking is that it fails to account for a multiplicity of options for a global economy. 'Capitalism' is an amorphous concept - it can (and does) exist in many different forms throughout the world. As such, there is no credible basis for our present ruling class' definition of capitalism in terms of corporatism whereby we have surrendered control of our global economic system to entities that lack any responsibility to the public good. All of this is my long way of leading into a rant about Youtube's latest decision to remove Hitler 'Downfall' parodies from their servers. This was done in compliance with a takedown notice from Constantin Films despite such videos enjoying support from the film's creator as well as legal protection as a parody under U.S. law. But what Youtube uploader has the resources to defend themselves against a movie studio in court?
If you haven't seen Downfall, it is an absolutely brilliant film that left me in a bad mood for weeks - I wholeheartedly recommend checking it out. If you have heard of the film, chances are it's because of one of these parodies having sustained this meme and likely driving millions of more viewers to this German-language film while the producers of such remixes have not made a single penny. But whether or not such parodies are actually making the studio money is irrelevant insofar as remixes are not only protected by law, but are essential to the evolution of artistic expression.
We've all borne witness to what corporate absolutism does to the environment, worker's rights, etc ... nobody wants to live in a world where art is strictly commodified and the only way for artists may only make a living is by reproducing tightly regulated and homogenized products for mass consumption.
Copyright is meant to prevent theft, not inhibit our cultural development. It is already running amok and trending towards an institutionalized absolutism that will cripple the digital age. Capitalism has spurned progress in a number of wonderful ways, but economic systems are meant for the betterment of society. When such system begin acting to our detriment, then they must be questioned and refined lest we surrender to yet another form of totalitarian rule. You can start by enjoying the following video while you still can:
Hitler reacts to the Hitler parodies being removed from YouTube